钠离子电池技术：2026年大规模应用将如何重塑AI计算中心的能源格局

Introduction

The traditional saying, "In the year of the Red Horse and Crimson Goat calamity, three types of people should hide," has recently garnered attention, particularly with 2026 being identified as a "Red Horse" year. This phrase originates from ancient Chinese calendrical systems and historical observations. This blog post will deconstruct this concept from a technical perspective, examining its foundations in the Sexagenary Cycle (Ganzhi), its historical context, and its modern interpretation. We aim to move beyond superstition and understand the logical and historical framework behind this cultural artifact.

俗语云："赤马红羊劫，三人要躲藏"，近期备受关注，尤其是2026年被指认为"赤马年"。这一说法源于中国古代的历法体系和历史观察。本文将从技术角度解构这一概念，审视其在干支历法中的基础、历史背景及现代诠释。我们的目的并非宣扬迷信，而是理解这一文化现象背后的逻辑与历史框架。

Key Concepts: The Sexagenary Cycle (Ganzhi)

To comprehend the "Red Horse and Crimson Goat" designation, one must first understand the traditional Chinese Sexagenary Cycle, or Ganzhi (干支) system. This system forms the chronological backbone of much of East Asian historical recording and calendrical science.

要理解"赤马红羊"的命名，首先必须了解中国传统的干支纪年体系。这一体系构成了东亚历史纪年和历法学的时序主干。

1. Composition of the Ganzhi System

The Ganzhi cycle is a combination of two sequences:

• Ten Heavenly Stems (天干): Jia (甲), Yi (乙), Bing (丙), Ding (丁), Wu (戊), Ji (己), Geng (庚), Xin (辛), Ren (壬), Gui (癸).
• Twelve Earthly Branches (地支): Zi (子), Chou (丑), Yin (寅), Mao (卯), Chen (辰), Si (巳), Wu (午), Wei (未), Shen (申), You (酉), Xu (戌), Hai (亥).

By pairing one Stem with one Branch in a fixed order, a cycle of 60 unique combinations is created (the least common multiple of 10 and 12). Each pair designates one year, month, day, or hour.

干支周期由两个序列组合而成：

• 十天干：甲、乙、丙、丁、戊、己、庚、辛、壬、癸。
• 十二地支：子、丑、寅、卯、辰、巳、午、未、申、酉、戌、亥。
  按固定顺序将一个天干与一个地支配对，便产生一个60种独特组合的周期（10和12的最小公倍数）。每一对组合用于标记年、月、日或时。

2. Correlation with Zodiac Animals

The Twelve Earthly Branches correspond directly to the twelve Chinese zodiac animals. For instance:

• Zi (子) = Rat
• Chou (丑) = Ox
• Wu (午) = Horse
• Wei (未) = Goat/Sheep
  Therefore, knowing the Earthly Branch of a year immediately reveals its zodiac sign.

十二地支与十二生肖直接对应。例如：

• 子 = 鼠
• 丑 = 牛
• 午 = 马
• 未 = 羊
  因此，知道某一年的地支即可知其生肖。

Technical Calculation: Determining the 2026-2027 Ganzhi

Let's apply the Ganzhi calculation method to derive the names for 2026 and 2027. The process involves separate calculations for the Heavenly Stem and Earthly Branch.

让我们应用干支推算法来推导2026年和2027年的名称。该过程涉及对天干和地支的分别计算。

Step 1: Determining the Heavenly Stem (天干)

A common method uses the last digit of the Gregorian year, mapped to the Heavenly Stems. The modern mapping is:

• 4 or Jia (甲)
• 5 or Yi (乙)
• 6 or Bing (丙)
• 7 or Ding (丁)
• 8 or Wu (戊)
• 9 or Ji (己)
• 0 or Geng (庚)
• 1 or Xin (辛)
• 2 or Ren (壬)
• 3 or Gui (癸)

For 2026: The last digit is 6. Therefore, the Heavenly Stem for 2026 is Bing (丙).

第一步：确定天干
一种常用方法是使用公历年份的最后一位数字，映射到天干。现代映射关系为：

• 4 对应 甲
• 5 对应 乙
• 6 对应 丙
• 7 对应 丁
• 8 对应 戊
• 9 对应 己
• 0 对应 庚
• 1 对应 辛
• 2 对应 壬
• 3 对应 癸
  对于2026年：末位数字是 6。因此，2026年的天干为 丙。

Step 2: Determining the Earthly Branch (地支)

The Earthly Branch calculation is slightly more complex. One reliable method uses the year's position within a 12-cycle and a known reference point for the century.

1. Take the last two digits of the year: For 2026, this is 26.
2. Find the remainder when this number is divided by 12: 26 mod 12 = 2 (since 12 * 2 = 24, remainder 2).
3. Apply the century's starting Earthly Branch (reference point):
   • 1900-1999: Starts from Zi (子, index 0).
   • 2000-2099: Starts from Chen (辰, index 4).
4. Count forward from the reference point by the remainder (2). Starting from Chen (辰, index 4):
   • Count 0: Chen (辰, 4)
   • Count 1: Si (巳, 5)
   • Count 2: Wu (午, 6)
     Therefore, the Earthly Branch for 2026 is Wu (午), which corresponds to the Horse.

Result for 2026: Heavenly Stem Bing (丙) + Earthly Branch Wu (午) = Bingwu (丙午) Year.

第二步：确定地支
地支的计算稍复杂。一种可靠的方法是使用年份在12周期中的位置以及已知的世纪参考点。

1. 取年份的最后两位数字：对于2026年，即 26。
2. 求该数字除以12的余数：26 mod 12 = 2（因为 12 * 2 = 24，余数为2）。
3. 应用所在世纪的地支起始点（参考点）：
   • 1900-1999年：从子（索引0）开始。
   • 2000-2099年：从辰（索引4）开始。
4. 从参考点开始向前数余数（2）位。从辰（索引4）开始：
   • 数0：辰 (4)
   • 数1：巳 (5)
   • 数2：午 (6)
     因此，2026年的地支为 午，对应生肖 马。
     2026年结果：天干 丙 + 地支 午 = 丙午年。

Step 3: Determining 2027 (Following Year)

Following the same logic:

• Heavenly Stem for 2027: Last digit is 7, which maps to Ding (丁).
• Earthly Branch for 2027: Last two digits 27 mod 12 = 3. Starting from the 2000-2099 reference point Chen (辰, 4), count forward 3: Chen (4) -> Si (5) -> Wu (6) -> Wei (7). Wei corresponds to the Goat/Sheep.

Result for 2027: Dingwei (丁未) Year.

第三步：确定2027年（次年）
依据相同逻辑：

• 2027年天干：末位数字为7，对应 丁。
• 2027年地支：末两位数字 27 mod 12 = 3。从2000-2099参考点辰（索引4）开始，向前数3位：辰 (4) -> 巳 (5) -> 午 (6) -> 未 (7)。未对应生肖 羊。
  2027年结果：丁未年。

Analysis of the "Red Horse and Crimson Goat" Designation

With the Ganzhi established, we can now decode the poetic terms "Red Horse" (赤马) and "Crimson Goat" (红羊).

干支确定后，我们现在可以解读"赤马"和"红羊"这两个诗意的术语。

1. The "Horse" and "Goat"

• 2026, Bingwu (丙午): The Earthly Branch Wu (午) is directly associated with the Horse.
• 2027, Dingwei (丁未): The Earthly Branch Wei (未) is directly associated with the Goat/Sheep.

1. "马"与"羊"

• 2026年，丙午：地支 午 直接关联 马。
• 2027年，丁未：地支 未 直接关联 羊。

2. The Colors "Red" and "Crimson"

In the Wuxing (五行, Five Phases) system, each Heavenly Stem is associated with an element and, by extension, a color.

• Bing (丙) and Ding (丁) both belong to the Fire (火) element.
• The color corresponding to the Fire element is Red (赤/红). Bing is often considered "yang fire" (like the sun), and Ding "yin fire" (like a lamp), but both share the red hue.

Therefore:

• Bingwu (丙午) Year = Fire + Horse = Red Horse (赤马) Year.
• Dingwei (丁未) Year = Fire + Goat = Crimson Goat (红羊) Year.

The term "calamity" or "劫" (jie) appended to these names originates from historical analysis, not the calendrical system itself.

2. 颜色"赤"与"红"
在五行体系中，每个天干都关联一个元素，进而关联一种颜色。

• 丙 和 丁 都属于 火 元素。
• 火元素对应的颜色是 红色（赤/红）。丙常被视为"阳火"（如太阳），丁为"阴火"（如灯烛），但二者共享红色调。
  因此：
• 丙午年 = 火 + 马 = 赤马年。
• 丁未年 = 火 + 羊 = 红羊年。
  附加在这些名称后的"劫"字，源于历史分析，而非历法体系本身。

Historical Context and the Bingding Guijian

The phrase finds its documented origin in the Southern Song Dynasty text Bingding Guijian (《丙丁龟鉴》) by Chai Wang. The title itself is instructive:

• Bingding (丙丁): Refers to the two Heavenly Stems.
• Guijian (龟鉴): "Turtle" refers to ancient divination using turtle shells; "Mirror" means to observe and reflect. Together, it implies using the past (divined/recorded) as a mirror for reflection.

这一说法有文献记载的起源是南宋柴望所著的《丙丁龟鉴》。其书名本身具有指导意义：

• 丙丁：指代这两个天干。
• 龟鉴："龟"指古代用龟甲进行的占卜；"鉴"意为观察、反省。合起来意指 以（占卜/记载的）过去为镜进行反思。

The book cataloged major historical events—primarily upheavals, wars, and natural disasters—occurring during each Bingwu and Dingwei year from the Qin/Han periods up to the author's own time. Chai Wang's analysis noted a pattern of turmoil associated with these 21 cycles over 1260 years. His intent was not mystical prophecy but historical warning: to urge the imperial court to exercise caution, govern benevolently, and avoid the mistakes of the past during these periods.

该书列举了自秦汉至作者所处时代，每一个丙午年和丁未年间发生的重大历史事件——主要是动荡、战争和自然灾害。柴望的分析指出，在1260年间的这21个周期里，存在一种与动乱相关的模式。他的目的并非神秘预言，而是 历史警示：旨在敦促朝廷在这些时期谨慎行事，施行仁政，避免重蹈历史覆辙。

Modern Interpretation and the "Three to Hide"

The core advisory, "three types of people should hide," traditionally refers to children, women, and the elderly. In a historical context of warfare and chaos, these groups were the most vulnerable. The instruction to "hide" was a pragmatic strategy for risk avoidance and preservation of life.

"三人要躲藏"这一核心建议，传统上指的是 孩童、女子和老人。在战争与动荡的历史背景下，这些群体是最脆弱的。"躲藏"的指示是一种规避风险、保全生命的务实策略。

A modern, objective interpretation strips away fatalism and extracts the underlying principles:

1. Pattern Recognition: The Bingding Guijian was an early exercise in data collection and pattern recognition across historical time-series data (albeit with potential selection bias).
2. Risk Awareness: It emphasizes heightened awareness and preparedness during periods perceived or historically noted as volatile.
3. Protecting the Vulnerable: The advice prioritizes the safety of society's most vulnerable demographics during times of potential crisis.
4. The Human Factor: The concluding insight, "the key lies with people" (关键在于人), is crucial. It suggests that outcomes are not preordained by the calendar but are significantly influenced by human action, governance, and collective response.

Thus, the saying transforms from a superstitious avoidance ritual into a metaphor for prudent risk management, historical consciousness, and proactive social care.

一种现代的、客观的解读摒弃了宿命论，提取出其根本原则：

1. 模式识别：《丙丁龟鉴》是对历史时间序列数据进行收集和模式识别的早期实践（尽管可能存在选择性偏差）。
2. 风险意识：它强调在感知到的或历史上记载的动荡时期，需要提高警惕并做好准备。
3. 保护弱势群体：该建议要求在潜在危机时期，优先保障社会中最脆弱人群的安全。
4. 人的因素：最后的见解"关键在于人"至关重要。它表明结果并非由历法预先注定，而是在很大程度上受到人类行动、治理和集体应对的影响。
   因此，这一说法从一种迷信的避祸仪式，转变为 审慎的风险管理、历史意识和主动的社会关怀 的隐喻。

(This analysis has covered the technical foundations, historical source, and core interpretation of the concept. Further elaboration on specific historical cases from the Bingding Guijian or comparative analysis with other calendrical warning systems would extend beyond the initial scope.)

（本文分析涵盖了该概念的技术基础、历史渊源和核心诠释。关于《丙丁龟鉴》中具体历史案例的详细阐述，或与其他历法警示体系的比较分析，将超出初始讨论范围。）